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Escenarios Energéticos 2030

A inicios del 2011, bajo la convicción que Argentina necesitaba un espacio donde debatir sobre el futuro energético de nuestro país, visibilizar las distintas opciones e incentivar una planificación energética por parte del Estado, la Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (FARN), El Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires (ITBA), El Centro de Estudios de la Actividad Reguladora Energética (CEARE) y Fundación Avina deciden impulsar un proceso de diálogo destinado a buscar consensos sobre los potenciales escenarios energéticos al 2030, aceptando el desafío de desarrollar, -por primera vez de forma conjunta-, un ejercicio de este tipo en nuestro país. Para ello fue necesario asumir algunas premisas irrenunciables para cada una de estas instituciones.

Los principios rectores de estos escenarios se basan en salir de la coyuntura, incentivando respuestas a largo plazo, garantizando la diversidad de actores con distintas miradas y propuestas fundamentadas técnica y económicamente sobre el tema. El propósito de este debate es visibilizar distintas opciones para la definición de una matriz energética al 2030, desarrolladas con la necesaria rigurosidad a partir de un piso técnico compartido.

Algunos conceptos claves son la necesidad de asegurar participación de aquellas personas cuya formación les permita concretar aportes valiosos para todos los ciudadanos en este complejo tema, mostrar las ventajas de contar con una planificación a largo plazo por lo menos indicativa, que permita visualizar las consecuencias de cada decisión en el campo de la energía y hacer pública toda esta información para que no solo algunos integrantes del mercado o de los distintos centros de poder estén en condiciones de decidir la tendencia de la matriz y su diversificación.

Cuando se habla de presente y perspectivas, por lo general son pocos los que se animan a establecer pautas a futuro con la energía y a fundamentarlas, ya que ello implica explicitar y asumir las consecuencias y, ya sean malas o buenas, decidir su traspaso a las generaciones futuras. Los escenarios explicitan la tendencia que se desea, cuáles son los objetivos de mínimo costo de la energía, incluyendo en la ecuación el “costo social” del desabastecimiento y también el costo de enfrentar los efectos climáticos resultantes de los Escenarios que se van a establecer y, a partir de allí, se debe trazar un escenario “hacia atrás”, planteándose un punto a alcanzar y cuáles son los planes y acciones para arribar a dicho escenario.

Entre los nuevos desafíos se destacan la necesidad de asegurar el abastecimiento de energía de bajo costo y no contaminante a nuestra generación y las próximas, como así también asegurar que los procesos de toma de decisiones de los inversores los impulsen a incrementar la oferta en forma proporcional a la demanda.

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