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20
Mar

Escenarios Energéticos Argentina 2030

En los últimos años, el debate energético ha ido ganando importancia en la agenda global. Esto se debió al incremento de la demanda energética generado por diversas razones: el crecimiento de las economías emergentes,la alta dependencia de la energía proveniente de combustibles fósiles y los desafíos que impone el cambio climático, siendo el consumo energético en cualquiera de sus variantes (calor industrial, generación eléctrica, transporte) la principal causa de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. En Argentina, al igual que lo ocurrido en la mayoría de las naciones emergentes durante los últimos 20 años, se han generado importantes cambios de escenario.

Los mismos se han reflejado como modificaciones en la regulación de los mercados de energía, el progresivo incremento del presupuesto público destinado al subsidio del sector energético, la penalización de las emisiones y el aumento de las importaciones de combustibles líquidos o de gas natural. Existe también una mirada hacia los riesgos potenciales que implica la dependencia de la energía importada para la actividad económica de cada nación.

En un momento de profundas transformaciones en materia energética, la mayoría de los países está profundizando su visión de largo plazo y reforzando sus mecanismos de planificación. La discusión en torno a la matriz energética de Argentina está instalada en la agenda pública y se está dando en ámbitos gubernamentales, el sector privado y la sociedad para un debate energético nacional civil, conscientes de que la definición de la política energética es una de las bases estructurales del modelo de desarrollo de un país.

En este contexto, se hace evidente la necesidad de iniciar un debate abierto, serio y transparente que incentive una visión de largo plazo sobre el futuro energético de la Argentina. Ello permitirá analizar con perspectiva un conjunto de aspectos como la mejor implementación del presupuesto público, la reacción de la sociedad frente a algunas opciones de generación y la necesidad de garantizar el acceso a servicios energéticos para los sectores más necesitados de la población.

Con el propósito de incentivar este debate, CEARE, ITBA, FARN y Fundación Avina impulsaron la “Plataforma de diálogo de escenarios energéticos Argentina 2030” invitando a seis instituciones del sector privado, académico y de la sociedad civil a compartir sus visiones sobre los distintos escenarios para el sector energético eléctrico del país.

El marco metodológico para la formulación de los escenarios fue elaborado por un grupo de especialistas y acordado con los participantes, garantizando una base de rigurosidad académica y priorizando modelos que hicieran comparables los distintos escenarios. No se buscó identificar una matriz única que respondiera a una visión ya consensuada, sino que se acordaron a priori solo los criterios para evaluar las distintas opciones en base a información común y fidedigna.

 Se buscó aportar herramientas que persiguieran la democratización de la información y el análisis sólido y participativo del presente y futuro de la matriz energética, con el anhelo de que sea un aporte para el Plan Estratégico Nacional de Energía.
Este proyecto es un primer ejercicio que se focaliza en el sector eléctrico, con cierta consideración sobre el consumo de gas natural por su significativa participación como insumo para la producción de energía en Argentina. Queda abierto el espacio para profundizar los escenarios en una matriz energética que integre otros sectores o que profundice ciertos aspectos técnicos que no se han alcanzado en esta primera fase.

CEARE, ITBA, FARN y Fundación Avina agradecemos muy especialmente la confianza, el compromiso y la capacidad técnica demostrada por las instituciones que trabajaron como escenaristas. En los próximos años, seguiremos trabajando bajo la “Plataforma Escenarios Energéticos Argentina 2030” incentivando el debate y convocando a los distintos sectores de la sociedad, en la formulación periódica de escenarios energéticos, como un aporte a la visión energética de largo plazo, un requisito imprescindible para avanzar hacia el desarrollo sostenible, incrementando la creciente competitividad de Argentina.

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