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02
Oct

Para FARN el compromiso de reducción de emisiones de Argentina es conservador y poco ambicioso

La propuesta de un compromiso del 15% de reducción de emisiones “de manera incondicional” para el 2030 aparece como conservador y escaso si se tiene en cuenta que entre 2015 y 2030 las emisiones nunca descienden, simplemente aumentan con menos intensidad.

El pasado 28 de septiembre Argentina presentó formalmente su contribución a la Convención de Cambio Climático para el régimen climático post 2020 en Argentina. Este documento fue presentado ante Naciones Unidas el 1 de octubre y complementa los presentados por el resto de los países del mundo.

En la propuesta presentada por el Secretario de Ambiente de la Nación, el país se compromete a reducir sus emisiones en un 15% de manera incondicional con respecto a su escenario de base (denominado BAU, Business as Usual), es decir, respecto a un escenario hipotético sin medidas de mejora desde 2005; mientras que haría un 15% adicional si recibe apoyo financiero.

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Fuente: Documento presentado por Argentina “Contribución prevista y determinada a nivel nacional – Octubre de 2015

Es positivo que Argentina haya presentado una propuesta ante Naciones Unidas, ya que al hacerlo, el país reconoce la importancia de ser parte de las soluciones en el marco de un nuevo régimen climático internacional que aplica para todos los países del mundo. Sin embargo la propuesta resulta escasa si tenemos en cuenta que Argentina se encuentra entre los 25 principales emisores mundiales y, más importante aún, si observamos que entre 2015 y 2030 las emisiones nunca descienden, simplemente aumentan con menos intensidad. Según se desprende del gráfico, la proyección inicia en el año 2005 con 450 Mt CO2e y llega a 2030 con emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) equivalentes a 670 Mt CO2e en el escenario BAU. Con el 15% incondicional las emisiones aumentan hasta los 560 Mt CO2e y sólo descenderían en caso que se alcanzara el 30% de reducción de las emisiones en 2030, objetivo que está condicionado a un apoyo financiero.

Además, al contrario de lo que algunos piensan, asumir un mayor grado de responsabilidad traería amplios beneficios sociales y económicos. Una mayor participación de las energías renovables no convencionales generaría ahorros significativos de importación de combustibles, tal y como ya ocurrió este año con el parque eólico de Comodoro Rivadavia. Además se generarían nuevos puestos de empleo nacional con mano de obra calificada y se lograría una verdadera independencia energética. Por otra parte, un mayor nivel de protección de los bosques traería aparejado consigo numerosos servicios ecosistémicos, al tiempo que proveería seguridad ante desbordes de ríos y aludes, y mejora de la calidad del agua.

Para Enrique Maurtua Konstantinidis, Coordinador del Proyecto de Agendas Climáticas Nacionales de FARN, “uno de los problemas más graves de la contribución presentada es la forma en que nuestro país realizará esa reducción. La propuesta argentina fomenta el desarrollo de energía nuclear y la construcción de grandes represas hidroeléctricas para diversificar la matriz energética con tecnologías bajas en emisiones. Preocupa que Argentina, que tiene el potencial de proveer energía a todo el continente con el desarrollo de otras energías más limpias como la eólica y solar, opte por la propuesta cara y peligrosa de la energía nuclear”.

Según el documento (disponible haciendo clic aquí), el 43% de las emisiones provienen del sector energético, el 28% de la agricultura y ganadería, el 21% del cambio de uso del suelo y silvicultura, el 5% de residuos, y el 3% de procesos industriales.

En cuanto a bosques, la propuesta tiene un problema muy grande, el escenario de base está considerado como “la no existencia de la ley de bosques”, lo que convierte al objetivo propuesto de fácil cumplimiento, si tenemos en cuenta que dicha ley fue sancionada hace 8 años y gran parte de lo presentado ya fue realizado.

Finalmente en adaptación, la propuesta enumera un listado de temas, sin ahondar en detalles ya que, por ejemplo no explicita las actividades que podrían llevarse a cabo para lograr dicho objetivo.

 

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