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Feb

ANÁLISIS DEL PRESUPUESTO NACIONAL 2018

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El objetivo de este documento es analizar dentro del presupuesto nacional 2018 las inversiones en materia de protección y conservación de los recursos naturales versus actividades contrarias, es decir, que generan o podrían generar un impacto ambiental negativo en el marco del presupuesto nacional para el año que acaba de empezar.
Los sectores analizados abarcan los que generan mayor emisión de gases efecto invernadero (GEIs): agricultura, ganadería, silvicultura y otros usos del suelo, así como energía (que incluye al sector transporte) los que totalizan el 91,7% de las emisiones a nivel nacional para el 2014 (MAyDS, 2017a).

El análisis realizado por María Marta Di Paola -Coordinadora en Economía y Política Ambiental de FARN- arroja como conclusión general que el presupuesto 2018 no presenta cambios respecto a la preponderancia de medidas con impacto ambiental negativo por sobre aquellas tendientes a la conservación. Las partidas identificadas como compatibles con el cuidado ambiental representan el 0,27% de los gastos presupuestados para el año 2018, mientras que aquellas etiquetadas en la categoría de actividades contrarias alcanzan al 5,36%.

En 2018, por cada peso que se invierte en cuestiones ambientales se invierten $20 en cuestiones que colaboran en su degradación, un monto que se incrementó en su comparación con el año 2017 cuando la ratio era de 1:16.

Teniendo en cuenta el contexto de reducción de gasto público, se observa una caída de los fondos a actividades contrarias en el ambiente en el sector energético. Esto implica una reducción de los subsidios a los combustibles fósiles, con partidas presupuestarias 30% menores respecto al año pasado para los subsidios.

Sin embargo, frente a esta caída de los subsidios, se observa un incremento de los fondos vinculados a medidas contrarias en el sector transporte. En comparación con el año 2017, el transporte ha aumentado su participación entre las partidas en 10 puntos porcentuales, los cuales han disminuido del sector energético. Por cada $1 que se destina al transporte menores emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero se estima que se invierten $104 a cuestiones vinculadas a medios de transporte que fomentan las emisiones, situación que se ha incrementado considerablemente desde el presupuesto pasado cuando la ratio era 1:7.

Asimismo, por cada $1 que se destina al análisis y la generación de información vinculada al impacto de la minería hay $66 destinados a la búsqueda de nuevos proyectos, sector cuya generación de empleo se encuentra en caída desde mayo de 2015.

En cuanto a los bosques nativos, según su ley, el financiamiento debería ser de un mínimo del 0,3% del presupuesto nacional, sin embargo, en 2018 sólo se presupuestó por un monto del 0,02% monto que ha caído respecto al año anterior.

En consonancia con el discurso oficial, las obras de infraestructura tienen una gran relevancia en el presupuesto 2018 de la mano de la PPP, la cual ha sido presentada como una herramienta de alto valor estratégico para la realización de obras. Sin embargo, hay variados aspectos que generan preocupación del uso y abuso de esta herramienta, como han presentado países que han implementado este tipo de contratación como Colombia y Perú, donde el Estado termina asumiendo los riesgos de los privados.

Otra cuestión a destacar es el proceso de inserción de nuestro país en foros económicos internacionales. En efecto, la agenda ambiental pareciera estar traccionada por la agenda de inserción internacional, siendo esta medida una mera respuesta a las medidas para el ingreso a la OCDE. En efecto, medidas como la reducción de los subsidios a los combustibles fósiles y el impuesto al carbono, responden a compromisos asumidos para ingresar a esta organización.

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